Weekly Security and Adequacy Assessment Report: 2012/02/17 through 2012/03/04 generated on 2012/02/02 13:18

Daily&Peak Values - Week 2

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

*peak hour is hour of largest Energy Forecast Demand			FRI	SAT	SUN
Forecast Supply			2012/02/17	2012/02/18	2012/02/19
Energy(MWhr)		Total	580174	582412	576916
Capacity(MW)		Peak Hour	32537	32537	32537
Energy Limit'd (MWhr)		Total	99024	97128	91632
Energy Limit'd Cap(MW)		Peak Hour	7015	7091	7091
Imports - Est'd (MW)		Peak Hour	700	700	700
Outages East (MW)		Peak Hour	5893	5453	5453
Outages West (MW)		Peak Hour	399	460	460
Total Outages (MW)		Peak Hour	6292	5913	5913
Forecast Demand
Primary Demand East (MW)		Peak Hour	19613	17590	17126
Primary Demand West (MW)		Peak Hour	557	632	584
Primary Demand Total (MW)		Peak Hour	20170	18222	17710
Dispatchable Load(MW)		Peak Hour	108	108	108
GRH(MW)	Total Operating Reserve	Peak Hour	1418	1418	1418
Min. 10-Minute OR		Peak Hour	1080	1080	1080
Min. 10-Minute Spin OR		Peak Hour	270	270	270
Load Forecast Uncertainty		Peak Hour	444	401	390
Add. Cont. Allowance		Peak Hour	946	946	946
Excess(Shortfall)
Energy(MWhr)		Total	144853	192815	199380
Capacity(MW)		Peak Hour	4075	6445	6968
Ancillary Services
AGC Range Required (MW)		Peak Hour	100	100	100
AGC Rate Required (MW/Min)		Peak Hour	50	50	50
AGC Range Available (MW)		Peak Hour	200	200	200
Reliability Must Run Required (MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0
Black Start Adequate(Y/N)		Peak Hour	Y	Y	Y
Minimum Operating Reserve Requirements
East(MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0
West(MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0

Daily&Peak Values - Week 3

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

*peak hour is hour of largest Energy Forecast Demand			MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN
Forecast Supply			2012/02/20	2012/02/21	2012/02/22	2012/02/23	2012/02/24	2012/02/25	2012/02/26
Energy(MWhr)		Total	578834	601090	599878	599806	599762	596884	596308
Capacity(MW)		Peak Hour	32537	32537	32537	32537	32537	32537	32537
Energy Limit'd (MWhr)		Total	91800	94608	93360	93288	93312	92328	91632
Energy Limit'd Cap(MW)		Peak Hour	7091	7017	7017	7090	7155	7155	7155
Imports - Est'd (MW)		Peak Hour	700	700	700	700	700	700	700
Outages East (MW)		Peak Hour	5366	4628	4628	4554	4515	4607	4602
Outages West (MW)		Peak Hour	464	464	464	464	442	439	439
Total Outages (MW)		Peak Hour	5830	5092	5092	5018	4957	5046	5041
Forecast Demand
Primary Demand East (MW)		Peak Hour	17911	19976	20237	19763	18899	17177	16934
Primary Demand West (MW)		Peak Hour	538	543	531	627	552	564	631
Primary Demand Total (MW)		Peak Hour	18449	20519	20768	20390	19451	17741	17565
Dispatchable Load(MW)		Peak Hour	108	108	108	108	108	108	108
GRH(MW)	Total Operating Reserve	Peak Hour	1418	1418	1418	1418	1418	1418	1418
Min. 10-Minute OR		Peak Hour	1080	1080	1080	1080	1080	1080	1080
Min. 10-Minute Spin OR		Peak Hour	270	270	270	270	270	270	270
Load Forecast Uncertainty		Peak Hour	406	451	457	449	428	390	386
Add. Cont. Allowance		Peak Hour	946	946	946	946	946	946	946
Excess(Shortfall)
Energy(MWhr)		Total	186101	164568	156228	164848	175792	213399	223706
Capacity(MW)		Peak Hour	6296	4919	4664	5124	6145	7804	7989
Ancillary Services
AGC Range Required (MW)		Peak Hour	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
AGC Rate Required (MW/Min)		Peak Hour	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
AGC Range Available (MW)		Peak Hour	200	200	200	200	200	200	200
Reliability Must Run Required (MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Black Start Adequate(Y/N)		Peak Hour	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Minimum Operating Reserve Requirements
East(MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
West(MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Daily&Peak Values - Week 4

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

*peak hour is hour of largest Energy Forecast Demand			MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN
Forecast Supply			2012/02/27	2012/02/28	2012/02/29	2012/03/01	2012/03/02	2012/03/03	2012/03/04
Energy(MWhr)		Total	600788	600274	599686	593062	599697	592708	592490
Capacity(MW)		Peak Hour	32537	32537	32537	32537	32537	32537	32537
Energy Limit'd (MWhr)		Total	94296	92904	93216	93384	93216	91824	91632
Energy Limit'd Cap(MW)		Peak Hour	7028	7081	7109	7131	7219	7219	7219
Imports - Est'd (MW)		Peak Hour	700	700	700	700	700	700	700
Outages East (MW)		Peak Hour	4618	4566	4565	4710	4453	4696	4697
Outages West (MW)		Peak Hour	464	464	442	437	442	439	439
Total Outages (MW)		Peak Hour	5082	5030	5007	5147	4895	5135	5136
Forecast Demand
Primary Demand East (MW)		Peak Hour	19472	19774	20061	19653	19024	17226	16979
Primary Demand West (MW)		Peak Hour	546	545	581	612	488	577	510
Primary Demand Total (MW)		Peak Hour	20018	20319	20642	20265	19512	17803	17489
Dispatchable Load(MW)		Peak Hour	108	108	108	108	108	108	108
GRH(MW)	Total Operating Reserve	Peak Hour	1418	1418	1418	1418	1418	1418	1418
Min. 10-Minute OR		Peak Hour	1080	1080	1080	1080	1080	1080	1080
Min. 10-Minute Spin OR		Peak Hour	270	270	270	270	270	270	270
Load Forecast Uncertainty		Peak Hour	440	447	454	507	488	445	437
Add. Cont. Allowance		Peak Hour	946	946	946	783	783	783	783
Excess(Shortfall)
Energy(MWhr)		Total	190106	170310	171566	173999	179631	207927	219965
Capacity(MW)		Peak Hour	5441	5185	4878	5225	6249	7761	8082
Ancillary Services
AGC Range Required (MW)		Peak Hour	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
AGC Rate Required (MW/Min)		Peak Hour	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
AGC Range Available (MW)		Peak Hour	200	200	200	200	200	200	200
Reliability Must Run Required (MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Black Start Adequate(Y/N)		Peak Hour	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Minimum Operating Reserve Requirements
East(MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
West(MW)		Peak Hour	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Hourly Data - Week 2

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

Day	FRI	SAT	SUN
Forecast Demand (MWhr)	2012/02/17	2012/02/18	2012/02/19
H1	16370	15183	14875
H2	15822	14591	14384
H3	15627	14310	14133
H4	15555	14156	14052
H5	15698	14178	14056
H6	16152	14399	14145
H7	17575	14979	14648
H8	18957	15647	15096
H9	19294	16453	15611
H10	19389	16972	15989
H11	19345	17225	16253
H12	19276	17330	16309
H13	18947	17202	16271
H14	18756	16852	15991
H15	18608	16616	15798
H16	18695	16558	15792
H17	18888	16750	16130
H18	19610	17317	16867
H19	20170	18222	17710
H20	19931	18054	17570
H21	19495	17635	17267
H22	18811	17030	16947
H23	17800	16431	16347
H24	16658	15615	15403
Total	435429	389705	377644

Hourly Data - Week 3

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

Day	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN
Forecast Demand (MWhr)	2012/02/20	2012/02/21	2012/02/22	2012/02/23	2012/02/24	2012/02/25	2012/02/26
H1	14877	16005	16550	15989	16360	15074	14682
H2	14499	15696	16210	15545	15813	14342	14201
H3	14346	15546	16020	15331	15405	14083	13957
H4	14297	15493	16051	15375	15284	13947	13875
H5	14372	15739	16123	15472	15381	13945	13881
H6	14658	16443	16876	16237	16024	14194	13934
H7	15286	17894	18266	17746	17287	14603	14433
H8	15680	19204	19641	19012	18408	15292	14871
H9	16164	19280	19701	19252	18693	16160	15382
H10	16660	19117	19358	19132	18603	16795	15767
H11	17031	19030	19238	19068	18515	17110	16032
H12	17219	18877	19085	19035	18493	17160	16099
H13	17116	18640	18860	18798	18383	16986	16099
H14	16786	18506	18769	18641	18382	16711	15817
H15	16469	18313	18601	18386	18325	16476	15613
H16	16380	18395	18626	18379	18440	16380	15601
H17	16798	18919	19100	18761	18698	16525	15933
H18	17566	19799	20004	19354	19075	17041	16687
H19	18449	20519	20768	20309	19451	17741	17565
H20	18441	20346	20601	20390	19245	17655	17433
H21	18273	19952	20197	20011	18751	17194	17135
H22	17903	19197	19541	19400	18047	16718	16589
H23	17200	18515	18401	18320	17093	16024	15882
H24	16371	17205	17171	17123	15922	15437	15242
Total	392841	436630	443758	435066	424078	383593	372710

Hourly Data - Week 4

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

Day	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN
Forecast Demand (MWhr)	2012/02/27	2012/02/28	2012/02/29	2012/03/01	2012/03/02	2012/03/03	2012/03/04
H1	14612	15773	15730	15597	15857	15180	14590
H2	13784	15139	15030	14872	15265	14354	14202
H3	13503	14871	14758	14394	14903	14083	13957
H4	13396	14781	14683	14220	14769	13962	13888
H5	13671	14920	14740	14280	15013	13963	13861
H6	14309	15582	15439	14977	15407	14205	13949
H7	15746	16932	16924	16460	16749	14618	14451
H8	17204	18089	18151	17687	18028	15317	14897
H9	17738	18475	18643	18182	18548	16193	15411
H10	17907	18591	18663	18211	18674	16830	15791
H11	18136	18700	18719	18269	18773	17148	16056
H12	18150	18854	18732	18284	18709	17197	16112
H13	18012	18919	18672	18225	18497	17023	16061
H14	18053	19029	18643	18198	18371	16747	15776
H15	17940	19032	18517	18075	18110	16513	15566
H16	18106	19191	18560	18125	18060	16447	15552
H17	18670	19600	19009	18579	18265	16604	15886
H18	19275	19934	19523	19096	18701	17107	16640
H19	20018	20319	20504	20075	19512	17803	17489
H20	19848	20164	20642	20265	19446	17630	17364
H21	19474	19723	20297	19855	19183	17310	17065
H22	18795	19033	19226	19053	18164	16851	16523
H23	17775	17893	18097	17735	17136	16439	16125
H24	16668	16528	16326	16457	16034	15365	15421
Total	410790	430072	428228	419171	420174	384889	372633

Transmission Interfaces

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

Internal Transmission Interface Limitations
Facility	Penalty Applied	Date/Time Issued	Start Date/Time	End Date/Time	Comments
Negative BLIP - Negative Buchanan Longwood Input	500	2012/01/16 16:48	2012/01/16 16:45	2012/02/20 23:59	Based on unit configuration.
TEK - Transfer East of Kenora	50	2012/01/17 15:02	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 18:00	F25A O/S
TEM - Transfer East of Mackenzie	225	2012/01/17 15:03	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 18:00	F25A O/S
TWM - Transfer West of Mackenzie	200	2012/01/17 15:03	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 18:00	F25A O/S
EWTE - East-West Transfer East	75	2012/01/17 15:03	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 18:00	F25A O/S
EWTW - East-West Transfer West	50	2012/01/17 15:03	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 18:00	F25A O/S
Flow South - flow south on circuits X503E, X504E and D5H	750	2012/01/24 09:36	2012/02/22 08:00	2012/02/22 12:00	FS < 800 MW, X503E O/S
Flow North - flow north on circuits X503E, X504E and D5H	1400	2012/01/24 09:39	2012/02/22 08:00	2012/02/22 12:00	FN < 500MW, X503E O/S
WMFE - Wawa-Mackay Flow East		2012/01/27 09:40	2012/02/22 08:30	2012/02/22 16:30	WAWAFE < 350 MW, W23K O\S
Flow South - flow south on circuits X503E, X504E and D5H	750	2012/01/24 09:38	2012/02/23 08:00	2012/02/23 12:00	FS < 800 MW, X504E O/S
Flow North - flow north on circuits X503E, X504E and D5H	1400	2012/01/24 09:40	2012/02/23 08:00	2012/02/23 12:00	FN < 500MW, X504E O/S

Intertie Transmission Interface Limitations
Facility	Penalty Applied	Date/Time Issued	Start Date/Time	End Date/Time	Comments
Ontario - Michigan Export Winter	0	2012/01/27 10:46	2011/11/01 00:00	2012/05/01 00:00	The base ON to MI export limit is 1775MW. LxD phase shifters on neutral tap.
Ontario - Michigan Import Winter	0	2012/01/27 10:47	2011/11/01 00:00	2012/05/01 00:00	The base MI to ON import limit is 1400MW. LxD phase shifters on neutral tap.
Ontario Niagara - New York Export Winter	0	2012/01/19 14:55	2012/01/19 14:44	2012/12/31 14:44	The base ON to NY export limit is 1650MW. BP76 os.
Ontario Niagara - New York Import Winter	0	2012/01/19 14:55	2012/01/19 14:45	2012/12/31 14:45	The base NY to ON import limit is 1050MW. BP76 os.
OMTW - Ontario-Manitoba Transfer West	250	2012/01/17 15:01	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 19:00	F25A O/S
OMTE - Ontario-Manitoba Transfer East	70	2012/01/17 15:01	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 19:00	F25A O/S
MPFN - Ontario-Minnesota Transfer North	50	2012/02/01 18:54	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 19:00	F25A with other equipment O/S *extended*
MPFN - Ontario-Minnesota Transfer North	25	2012/01/17 16:37	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 19:00	F25A O/S
MPFS - Ontario-Minnesota Transfer South	140	2012/02/01 18:54	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 19:00	F25A with other equipment O/S *extended*
MPFS - Ontario-Minnesota Transfer South	90	2012/01/17 16:37	2012/01/30 08:00	2012/03/16 19:00	F25A O/S

SAA Notes

Daily&Peak Values: Week2 Week3 Week4 Hourly Data: Week2 Week3 Week4 Transmission Interfaces SAA Notes

Security and Adequacy Assesment Notes-Title

Date/Time Issued

Start Date/Time

End Date/Time

Comment